Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2581 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 2581 · DFW → MKE

departs 9:05 AM CT · arrives 11:38 AM CT

Forecast issued Tue 7:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at MKE more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to MKE?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
2%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 20% of the time recently

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MKE (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2581 · DFW → MKE

Odds over time

How late will it get to MKE?