AA 2687 · SAN → DFW

took off 11:30 AM PT · landed 3:56 PM CT (scheduled 9:50 AM PT → 3:10 PM CT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to DFW?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from SAN are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2687 · SAN → DFW

Odds over time

How late did it get to DFW?