Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2761 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 2761 · STL → DFW

departs 7:09 PM CT · arrives 9:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 3h after departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

31% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
68%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at STL

Weather at each end

STL (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2761 · STL → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?