AA 276 · SFO → JFK

took off 1:55 AM PT · landed 9:49 AM ET (scheduled 9:57 PM PT → 6:18 AM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 2h before departure

Arrive at JFK more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE High. The odds now come mostly from live FAA and airport data.

How late did it get to JFK?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
✓

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 9pm departures from SFO are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

SFO (origin) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

JFK (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 276 · SFO → JFK

Odds over time

How late did it get to JFK?