Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 2841 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 2841 · ORD → PUJ

departs 8:22 AM CT · arrives 1:57 PM AST

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 27h before departure

Arrive at PUJ more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±1 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PUJ?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Thunderstorms forecast at PUJ that day

↑ 8am departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling11,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PUJ (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 2841 · ORD → PUJ

Odds over time

How late will it get to PUJ?