AA 3017 · LAX → MCO

took off 4:03 PM PT · landed 11:28 PM ET (scheduled 2:06 PM PT → 9:56 PM ET)

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 6h after departure

Arrive at MCO more than 15 minutes late?

Late chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to MCO?

RESOLVED

On time or early
–
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
✓
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into MCO at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 27% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

LAX (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

MCO (destination) Gusts30 kt Ceiling2,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3017 · LAX → MCO

Odds over time

How late did it get to MCO?