Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 3234 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 3234 · SEA → ORD

departs 10:36 AM PT · arrives 5:16 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at ORD more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±2 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ORD?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into ORD at that hour are often late

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ This flight has been late 33% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

ORD (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 3234 · SEA → ORD

Odds over time

How late will it get to ORD?