tailodds FORECAST

Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 501 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

AA 501 · PHX → MEX

departs 10:43 AM MT · arrives 2:58 PM CST
Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure
Arrive at MEX more than 15 minutes late?
15% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h
HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.
MOSTLY HISTORY WEATHER FORECASTS LIVE IN THE AIR 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 6.6d 2d Now 1d 12h 6h Departs Lands

How late will it get to MEX?

  1. On time or early
    85%
  2. 15–30 min late
    4%
  3. 30 min–1 hour late
    6%
  4. 1–2 hours late
    3%
  5. Over 2 hours late
    2%
  6. Cancelled
    <1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.