Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 524 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 524 · IAD → DFW

departs 3:03 PM ET · arrives 5:11 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at DFW more than 15 minutes late?

21% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DFW?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into DFW at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 18% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at IAD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

IAD (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling6,000 ft Visibility7 mi Precipnone

DFW (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 524 · IAD → DFW

Odds over time

How late will it get to DFW?