Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 542 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 542 · DFW → RDU

departs 8:04 PM CT · arrives 11:48 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 2h after departure

Arrive at RDU more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to RDU?

On time or early
63%
15–30 min late
19%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from DFW are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility8 mi Precipnone

RDU (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.13 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 542 · DFW → RDU

Odds over time

How late will it get to RDU?