Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 570 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 570 · PHX → SAT

departs 12:21 PM MT · arrives 4:41 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 12pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Arrivals into SAT at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SAT (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.01 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 570 · PHX → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?