Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 686 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 686 · PHX → SFO

departs 8:23 PM MT · arrives 10:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 0h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

46% chance · ±2 pts +8 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
54%
15–30 min late
16%
30 min–1 hour late
19%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
4%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 49% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SFO (destination) Gusts22 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 686 · PHX → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?