Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 830 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 830 · ORD → PHL

departs 1:21 PM CT · arrives 4:38 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 37h before departure

Arrive at PHL more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±3 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHL?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 1pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ Arrivals into PHL at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHL

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PHL (destination) Gusts7 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 830 · ORD → PHL

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHL?