Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 844 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AA 844 · DFW → TPA

departs 9:30 AM CT · arrives 1:05 PM ET

Forecast issued Tue 4:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at TPA more than 15 minutes late?

22% chance · ±1 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to TPA?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 39% of the time recently

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↑ 9am departures from DFW are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DFW

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DFW (origin) Gusts18 kt Ceiling4,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

TPA (destination) Gusts28 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 844 · DFW → TPA

Odds over time

How late will it get to TPA?