Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AMERICAN · FLIGHT AA 98 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AA 98 · ORD → LHR

departs 10:38 PM CT · arrives 11:13 AM GMT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 PM ET · 1h before departure

Arrive at LHR more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±2 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late will it get to LHR?

On time or early
78%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10pm departures from ORD are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ AA's recent on-time record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at ORD

Weather at each end

ORD (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling9,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

LHR (destination) Gusts— Ceiling— Visibility— Precip—

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AA 98 · ORD → LHR

Odds over time

How late will it get to LHR?