AC 1038 · DEN → YYZ

departs 1:36 PM MT · arrives 6:55 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

9% chance · ±1 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
90%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 1pm departures from DEN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ DEN is busy at that time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at DEN

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

DEN (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YYZ (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1038 · DEN → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?