Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

AIR CANADA · FLIGHT AC 1041 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AC 1041 · YYZ → DEN

departs 6:41 PM EDT · arrives 8:09 PM MT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 20h before departure

Arrive at DEN more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to DEN?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into DEN at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from YYZ are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

YYZ (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

DEN (destination) Gusts23 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1041 · YYZ → DEN

Odds over time

How late will it get to DEN?