AC 1042 · AUS → YYZ

departs 12:01 PM CT · arrives 4:21 PM EDT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at YYZ more than 15 minutes late?

11% chance · ±1 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YYZ?

On time or early
88%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 400 ft forecast at AUS that day

↑ 12pm departures from AUS are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at YYZ

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

AUS (origin) Gusts13 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.13 in

YYZ (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceiling8,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1042 · AUS → YYZ

Odds over time

How late will it get to YYZ?