AC 1583 · SAN → YVR

departs 5:15 PM PT · arrives 8:32 PM PDT

Forecast issued Tue 11:00 PM ET · 21h before departure

Arrive at YVR more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to YVR?

On time or early
83%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 5pm departures from SAN are often late

↑ This route's recent record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SAN (origin) Gusts11 kt Ceiling4,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

YVR (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.09 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AC 1583 · SAN → YVR

Odds over time

How late will it get to YVR?