AS 1016 · HNL → OGG

departs 6:00 AM HT · arrives 6:40 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 1:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.2 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Visibility down to 2 mi, 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 6am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.18 in

OGG (destination) Gusts15 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.05 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1016 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?