AS 1033 · HNL → LIH

departs 8:33 AM HT · arrives 9:14 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at LIH more than 15 minutes late?

16% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LIH?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ LIH is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ Arrivals into LIH at that hour are usually not late

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.14 in

LIH (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.66 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1033 · HNL → LIH

Odds over time

How late will it get to LIH?