AS 1044 · LIH → HNL

departs 9:46 AM HT · arrives 10:24 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±4 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
9%
30 min–1 hour late
10%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ Other factors

↓ 9am departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.66 in

HNL (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility2 mi Precip2.14 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1044 · LIH → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?