AS 1086 · HNL → OGG

departs 11:24 AM HT · arrives 12:07 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±0 pts −7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.05 in

OGG (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility2 mi Precip3.46 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1086 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?