AS 1108 · HNL → KOA

departs 12:00 PM HT · arrives 1:01 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at KOA more than 15 minutes late?

52% chance · ±0 pts +5 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KOA?

On time or early
47%
15–30 min late
30%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 2.1 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 0.3 in of rain forecast at KOA that day

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts14 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility4 mi Precip2.05 in

KOA (destination) Gusts18 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility10+ mi Precip0.59 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1108 · HNL → KOA

Odds over time

How late will it get to KOA?