AS 1150 · LIH → OGG

departs 9:52 AM HT · arrives 10:59 AM HT

Forecast issued Wed 2:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±5 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
5%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 2.0 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ OGG is prone to delays

↑ Cloud base down to 1,100 ft, 0.7 in of rain forecast at LIH that day

↓ 9am departures from LIH are usually not late

↓ LIH usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,100 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.66 in

OGG (destination) Gusts16 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility3 mi Precip2.02 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1150 · LIH → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?