AS 1336 · SEA → ANC

departs 8:03 PM PT · arrives 10:48 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

35% chance · ±4 pts +7 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
16%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 8pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.21 in

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1336 · SEA → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?