AS 1426 · HNL → OGG

departs 12:08 PM HT · arrives 1:00 PM HT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at OGG more than 15 minutes late?

36% chance · ±0 pts −6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OGG?

On time or early
62%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
18%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
5%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 3.1 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 4.0 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ 12pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ HNL usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip4.00 in

OGG (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility7 mi Precip3.06 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 1426 · HNL → OGG

Odds over time

How late will it get to OGG?