Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 228 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AS 228 · LIH → SAN

departs 10:46 AM HT · arrives 7:24 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at SAN more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAN?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
0%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
3%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ SAN is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SAN at that hour are often late

↑ This flight has been late 19% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SAN

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

LIH (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.07 in

SAN (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 228 · LIH → SAN

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAN?