AS 230 · ANC → OTZ

took off 9:01 AM AKT · landed 10:18 AM AKDT (scheduled 8:46 AM AKT → 10:31 AM AKDT)

Forecast issued Wed 6:00 PM ET · 5h after departure

Arrive at OTZ more than 15 minutes late?

Not late chance · ±1 pts +11 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Very high. The odds now come almost entirely from live conditions.

How late did it get to OTZ?

RESOLVED

On time or early
✓
15–30 min late
–
30 min–1 hour late
–
1–2 hours late
–
Over 2 hours late
–

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ Gusts to 32 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OTZ that day

↑ Other factors

↓ 8am departures from ANC are usually not late

↓ Arrivals into OTZ at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precip0.01 in

OTZ (destination) Gusts33 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.4 mi Precip0.32 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 230 · ANC → OTZ

Odds over time

How late did it get to OTZ?