AS 230 · OTZ → ANC

departs 11:17 AM AKDT · arrives 1:00 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 4:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

29% chance · ±0 pts +12 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
64%
15–30 min late
18%
30 min–1 hour late
1%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
10%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 33 kt, cloud base down to 300 ft, visibility down to 0.7 mi, 0.3 in of rain forecast at OTZ that day

↓ 11am departures from OTZ are usually not late

↓ OTZ usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

OTZ (origin) Gusts33 kt Ceiling600 ft Visibility0.7 mi Precip0.21 in

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling2,480 ft Visibility2.4 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 230 · OTZ → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?