Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 2617 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AS 2617 · SBD → PDX

departs 9:14 PM PT · arrives 11:42 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 14h before departure

Arrive at PDX more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PDX?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
3%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Arrivals into PDX at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SBD

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SBD (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PDX (destination) Gusts27 kt Ceiling2,700 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.15 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 2617 · SBD → PDX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PDX?