Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 408 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AS 408 · ANC → SEA

departs 5:55 AM AKT · arrives 10:27 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 32h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

12% chance · ±1 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
87%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
3%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are often late

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SEA

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ 5am departures from ANC are usually not late

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts10 kt Ceiling10,667 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 408 · ANC → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?