AS 471 · OGG → LAX

departs 1:50 PM HT · arrives 10:05 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

17% chance · ±0 pts – · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
81%
15–30 min late
<1%
30 min–1 hour late
11%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, 3.1 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ This flight has been late 31% of the time recently

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at LAX

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts21 kt Ceiling2,200 ft Visibility6 mi Precip1.19 in

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling2,600 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 471 · OGG → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?