Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 494 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 494 · SEA → SAT

departs 10:02 AM PT · arrives 4:04 PM CT

Forecast issued Tue 3:00 AM ET · 34h before departure

Arrive at SAT more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±2 pts −1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SAT?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 10am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility5 mi Precip0.07 in

SAT (destination) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 494 · SEA → SAT

Odds over time

How late will it get to SAT?