Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 514 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AS 514 · PHX → PAE

departs 7:24 PM MT · arrives 10:17 PM PT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PAE more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PAE?

On time or early
85%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 7pm departures from PHX are often late

↑ Gusts to 29 kt, cloud base down to 500 ft, 0.5 in of rain forecast at PAE that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ This flight has been late 11% of the time recently

Weather at each end

PHX (origin) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

PAE (destination) Gusts29 kt Ceiling500 ft Visibility3 mi Precip0.49 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 514 · PHX → PAE

Odds over time

How late will it get to PAE?