Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 521 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 521 · SEA → SJC

departs 11:47 AM PT · arrives 2:02 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 6:00 AM ET · 33h before departure

Arrive at SJC more than 15 minutes late?

23% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SJC?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
13%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 11am departures from SEA are often late

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SJC

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

SJC (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 521 · SEA → SJC

Odds over time

How late will it get to SJC?