Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 528 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 528 · SEA → SFO

departs 9:56 AM PT · arrives 12:06 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 35h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

34% chance · ±2 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
17%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
7%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 43% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts20 kt Ceiling1,500 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 528 · SEA → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?