Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 632 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AS 632 · SEA → PHX

departs 6:52 PM PT · arrives 9:53 PM MT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at PHX more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±0 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to PHX?

On time or early
76%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Arrivals into PHX at that hour are often late

↑ 6pm departures from SEA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at PHX

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SEA (origin) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.21 in

PHX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 632 · SEA → PHX

Odds over time

How late will it get to PHX?