Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 7015 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 7015 · ANC → BRW

departs 7:00 AM AKT · arrives 9:11 AM AKT

Forecast issued Tue 10:00 PM ET · 13h before departure

Arrive at BRW more than 15 minutes late?

15% chance · ±1 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to BRW?

On time or early
84%
15–30 min late
7%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Gusts to 25 kt, cloud base down to 600 ft forecast at BRW that day

↑ This flight has been late 24% of the time recently

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↓ Arrivals into BRW at that hour are usually not late

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

Weather at each end

ANC (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

BRW (destination) Gusts25 kt Ceiling700 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 7015 · ANC → BRW

Odds over time

How late will it get to BRW?