Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 810 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AS 810 · HNL → LAX

departs 8:00 AM HT · arrives 4:20 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 36h before departure

Arrive at LAX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±1 pts +2 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to LAX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 29% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Arrivals into LAX at that hour are often late

↓ 8am departures from HNL are usually not late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.57 in

LAX (destination) Gusts11 kt Ceiling3,500 ft Visibility9 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 810 · HNL → LAX

Odds over time

How late will it get to LAX?