Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 829 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 829 · JFK → HNL

departs 8:55 AM ET · arrives 1:49 PM HT

Forecast issued Tue 2:00 AM ET · 31h before departure

Arrive at HNL more than 15 minutes late?

33% chance · ±3 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to HNL?

On time or early
66%
15–30 min late
15%
30 min–1 hour late
9%
1–2 hours late
6%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ HNL is prone to delays

↑ This flight has been late 35% of the time recently

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at JFK

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

JFK (origin) Gusts9 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

HNL (destination) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.57 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 829 · JFK → HNL

Odds over time

How late will it get to HNL?