AS 82 · ADQ → ANC

departs 2:56 PM AKT · arrives 4:07 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±0 pts +13 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
72%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
7%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ ANC usually runs smoothly

Weather at each end

ADQ (origin) Gusts23 kt Ceiling300 ft Visibility2.66667 mi Precip0.03 in

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 82 · ADQ → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?