Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 834 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AS 834 · HNL → SFO

departs 12:04 AM HT · arrives 8:23 AM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 29h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

24% chance · ±2 pts +6 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
2%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 2 mi, 1.6 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 34% of the time recently

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Early flights usually leave on time

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility2 mi Precip1.57 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 834 · HNL → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?