AS 849 · HNL → KIX

departs 1:57 PM HT · arrives 6:19 PM JST

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 12h before departure

Arrive at KIX more than 15 minutes late?

25% chance · ±0 pts +0 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to KIX?

On time or early
74%
15–30 min late
14%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
5%
Over 2 hours late
<1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 4.0 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This route's recent record

↑ 1pm departures from HNL are often late

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at KIX

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip4.00 in

KIX (destination) Gusts8 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 849 · HNL → KIX

Odds over time

How late will it get to KIX?