Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 854 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AS 854 · HNL → SEA

departs 9:29 PM HT · arrives 6:18 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 16h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

26% chance · ±4 pts +1 pt · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
73%
15–30 min late
12%
30 min–1 hour late
8%
1–2 hours late
3%
Over 2 hours late
3%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ This flight has been late 28% of the time recently

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.9 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Arrivals into SEA at that hour are usually not late

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.86 in

SEA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility4 mi Precip0.21 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 854 · HNL → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?