Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9421 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AS 9421 · TPA → GSO

departs 6:30 PM ET · arrives 8:24 PM ET

Forecast issued Wed 8:00 AM ET · 10h before departure

Arrive at GSO more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to GSO?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
4%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ 6pm departures from TPA are often late

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ This route's recent record

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Cloud base down to 200 ft, visibility down to 0.5 mi forecast at GSO that day

Weather at each end

TPA (origin) Gusts26 kt Ceiling10,000 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

GSO (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling200 ft Visibility0.5 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9421 · TPA → GSO

Odds over time

How late will it get to GSO?