Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9441 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Tomorrow

AS 9441 · SAT → SEA

departs 10:09 AM CT · arrives 12:23 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 5:00 AM ET · 30h before departure

Arrive at SEA more than 15 minutes late?

20% chance · ±0 pts −3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SEA?

On time or early
79%
15–30 min late
11%
30 min–1 hour late
6%
1–2 hours late
2%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 1,300 ft forecast at SEA that day

↑ AS's recent on-time record

↑ This flight has been late 21% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ 10am departures from SAT are usually not late

Weather at each end

SAT (origin) Gusts12 kt Ceiling400 ft Visibility6 mi Precipnone

SEA (destination) Gusts19 kt Ceiling1,300 ft Visibility6 mi Precip0.07 in

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9441 · SAT → SEA

Odds over time

How late will it get to SEA?