AS 9664 · SCC → ANC

departs 4:36 PM AKT · arrives 6:29 PM AKT

Forecast issued Wed 10:00 AM ET · 11h before departure

Arrive at ANC more than 15 minutes late?

14% chance · ±0 pts +4 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to ANC?

On time or early
86%
15–30 min late
6%
30 min–1 hour late
5%
1–2 hours late
1%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 100 ft, visibility down to 0.25 mi forecast at ANC that day

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↑ Mostly benign weather forecast at SCC

↓ This flight has been late 10% of the time recently

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

SCC (origin) Gusts16 kt Ceiling6,500 ft Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

ANC (destination) Gusts10 kt Ceiling100 ft Visibility0.25 mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9664 · SCC → ANC

Odds over time

How late will it get to ANC?