Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 9685 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28 Today

AS 9685 · HNL → OAK

departs 9:58 PM HT · arrives 6:31 AM PT

Forecast issued Wed 11:00 AM ET · 17h before departure

Arrive at OAK more than 15 minutes late?

18% chance · ±2 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Good. The odds now lean mostly on firmed-up weather forecasts.

How late will it get to OAK?

On time or early
82%
15–30 min late
8%
30 min–1 hour late
4%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
1%
Cancelled
<1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 900 ft, visibility down to 1.75 mi, 2.9 in of rain forecast at HNL that day

↑ This flight has been late 23% of the time recently

↑ Later flights pick up delays from earlier in the day

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at OAK

Weather at each end

HNL (origin) Gusts15 kt Ceiling900 ft Visibility1.75 mi Precip2.86 in

OAK (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 9685 · HNL → OAK

Odds over time

How late will it get to OAK?