Schedule: the flights that flew on Wednesday, Oct 21, re-dated. Real flights replace these once airlines file their FAA flight plans, usually about a day ahead.

ALASKA · FLIGHT AS 978 SCHEDULED · TYPICAL SCHEDULE

Wednesday, October 28

AS 978 · OGG → SFO

departs 10:32 AM HT · arrives 6:27 PM PT

Forecast issued Tue 1:00 AM ET · 40h before departure

Arrive at SFO more than 15 minutes late?

19% chance · ±4 pts +3 pts · 24h

HOW SURE WE ARE Moderate. The odds now blend history with early weather forecasts.

How late will it get to SFO?

On time or early
80%
15–30 min late
10%
30 min–1 hour late
2%
1–2 hours late
4%
Over 2 hours late
2%
Cancelled
1%

Gate arrival compared with the scheduled arrival. The ranges add up to 100%.

What’s moving the odds

↑ Cloud base down to 800 ft, 1.2 in of rain forecast at OGG that day

↑ Arrivals into SFO at that hour are often late

↑ SFO is prone to delays

↓ Mostly benign weather forecast at SFO

↓ Wednesdays in October are usually quieter than average

Weather at each end

OGG (origin) Gusts17 kt Ceiling800 ft Visibility4 mi Precip1.23 in

SFO (destination) Gusts13 kt Ceilingnone (clear) Visibility10+ mi Precipnone

How this resolves

Yes if the gate arrival is more than 15 minutes after the scheduled arrival. Cancelled or diverted flights resolve N/A.

Every question here is display only — there is no betting or money involved. Gate times come from the airline; a cancellation resolves only the “Cancelled?” question, and a diversion voids the delay questions.

AS 978 · OGG → SFO

Odds over time

How late will it get to SFO?